In purely military terms, it’s impossible to defeat Iran. It has a huge amount of territory. The Americans won’t have enough forces to deploy there.
The logistics are crazy, it’s impossible for the Americans. So, there’s no opportunity to conduct a war against Iran and win it. And the Pentagon knows that better than anyone. And they warned and said it.
To advance by a few miles in small, miserable Kuwait, the Americans deployed half a million servicemen there. They strained their entire US army.
They prepared the operation for six months to arrange logistics for a short-term war. It’s impossible in the case of Iran. In addition to that, the military thinks in a way that politicians do not.
To concentrate all of the American forces in Iran means to leave the Far East unprotected and set China loose. The first thing that the Chinese will do, when Americans focus on Iran, will be to twist Taiwan’s neck.
The US military has about 150.000 troops deployed to Japan and South Korea. Americans won’t be able to do anything. The American army is not able to conduct two medium-sized wars.
It can hardly conduct a big one. That’s why China will be set loose in the Far East. That’s what Americans want the least.
Americans don’t even understand what a stupid thing they did when they overthrew Saddam Hussein. Iraq is 60% Shi’ite. You talked about Arabs in Iraq – the Shi’ite. They’re Shi’ite.
In the south of Iran, there are Arabs who are Shi’ite. And in Saudi Arabia, the area where the oil is developed is controlled by the Shi’ite. And the majority of Kuwait’s population is Shi’ite. 80% of Bahrain’s population is Shi’ite.
Then, such a big fire will start in the Middle East. And the Sunni won’t be able to [stop] the Iranians and pro-Iranian forces.
They don’t have enough forces. Saudi Arabia has a huge military budget. Its hands are tied, so it can’t do anything to tiny Yemen. They can’t do anything to the Houthi’s.
Therefore, in this war of Persians against Arabs, the Persians will win. And this is another problem. It means a stronger Turkey. The Americans won’t remain whole after that war. The geo-political situation in the Middle East won’t remain whole. If anyone wins, it’ll be Russia.
The Americans don’t care about Iran’s nuclear weapons at all. They don’t care. Americans would say that they’ll protect Saudi Arabia like they protect Europe.
The Americans have never started a war when the Pentagon didn’t want it. But the beginning of a long war against Iran will lead to Iran having nuclear weapons in six months. And that’s something that Israel does not want.
There’s another thing. If the price of oil exceeds $100 per barrel, it hits the Chinese economy. Most of all, it hits the European and American economies. All of the world’s economy and industry now have a huge energy component.
If you double the oil price, the industry will be ruined. First of all, it’ll happen in the USA. The USA is the biggest consumer of electric power.
For the price of oil, it doesn’t matter if it’s developed in Texas, or Siberia, or Saudi Arabia. If it’s $150 per barrel, the economy will be ruined.
Russia Insider / ABC Flash Point News 2019.